4min 27sec clip - How many poets does it take to change a lightbulb? It's complicated.

3min 14sec clip - Integrative thinking - Creating Great Choices: Jennifer Riel and Roger Martin

this is water by david foster wallace

brilliant

via laughing squid

critical thinking no.5: the gambler's fallacy

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

- if you watch a coin flip 9 times - it comes up heads 2 times and tails 7 times

- what is going to come up next?

- as tails has been having a good run maybe that will continue - or because of that maybe it is time for heads?

- our brains are very good at recognising patterns - sometime when they are not there

- in fact there is a 50% chance of heads or tails every time the coin is flipped - it doesn't matter what came before and luck doesn't come into it at all

- but it is hard to shake the idea that there is a pattern in there somewhere - maybe we just need to look hard enough - this is known as the gambler's fallacy (our assumption that probability changes as a result of past events)

- we are wired to see things as if they are related 

- so for example - people take pills and feel better - but a lot of logic and probability is needed to determine whether the pills were truly responsible

- just because one thing follows another it does not mean they are linked - there could be other factors or it could just be coincidence

- to know for sure you have to test the circumstances again and again  - to look for those other factors that could disprove the link-  this reinforces confidence that your pattern is true

- our brains may see patterns - and this is often useful - but it takes science to prove that those patterns are real

critical thinking no.4 - getting personal

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

- some arguments focus on the personal - to counter this keep your eye on the ball

- its difficult to listen to people we don't like OR it can be difficult to disagree with those we trust and admire

- but plainly there is a difference between who a person is and what they are saying

- logically we can't base arguments about whether views are right or wrong based on who is saying them and what we think about the person - its like playing the player - not the ball

- because we cannot be experts on all things it is tempting to use how we feel about a person to determine whether we trust them

- but of course even if experts say something it isn't necessarily true - what are the facts behind their position?

critical thinking no.3: - the man who was made of #straw

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

- logic is made up of premises and sometimes those premises are made of straw

- off topic, over simplified, exaggerated or subtly twisted versions of an argument which others can easily knock over whilst still appearing logical

- e.g. a discussion about whether vaccinations can reduce the no. of people who fall sick from a particular virus - in response somebody puts forward a counter argument that pharmaceutical companies make large profits from selling vaccines - so the focus of the argument is being shifted from the benefits of vaccination to profiteering

- its also easy to think that everybody agrees with your starting premises - but misunderstandings or false premises can be slipped in

- e.g. measles make you sick, the measles vaccine contains the measles virus and therefore the measles vaccine make you sick - on the simplified facts this conclusion is logical - but the premises may be not so solid - this argument needs to show that the measles vaccine has the measles virus in it in a form that makes you sick (actually the vaccine contains a broken version of the virus that reproduces slowly and doesn't make you sick) - a subtle but rather significant difference

- even over simplifying an argument down to "for and against" or "true and false" or "black and white" may be used to mislead people - remember - there can be more than one solution

critical thinking no. 2: broken #logic

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

- logic has a structure - in logic an idea is called a premise

- which can be put with other premises in such a way as they lead us to a conclusion

- so for example
   one premise might say magnets attract iron
   another premise might be this object is made from iron
   therefore without seeing it you can logically conclude that the magnet will attract this object

- but what if we swop around the information?
  premise - magnets attract iron
  premise - this object is attracted to magnets
  from this info you cannot logically conclude that this item is made of iron  (eg magnets might attract other metals as well)

- this broken logic is called a logical fallacy - the particular example above is a formal fallacy as its form looks similar to logic but is false - in latin - and in legal circles - its called a non sequiter (which means does not follow)

critical thinking no. 1: a valuable argument

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

to make sense of things the brain has some clever tools and tricks
- it can turn experiences into symbols
- recall sensations
- and identify patterns

and it also takes shortcuts
- seeking out ideas that confirm what you already suspect
- finding the ideas of those you trust more appealing
- treating your own experience as evidence
- blurring the line between what you feel to be the case and what you know to be the case

most of the time these tricks serve us so well we are hardly aware of then
- but sometimes they mislead us
- the bias that are so useful can also blind us
- and in a complex world with differing opinions its hard to decide when to think using shortcuts and when to think using our heads

but thinking doesn't need to be hard
- logic is a useful way to identify ideas that are likely to be helpful - its a way of combining ideas to come to a conclusion
- e.g. on convincing somebody to let you go to an event  - instead of arguing all people are allowed to go so why can't I?  - a logical argument would be 
1) all people are allowed to go
2) I am people
3) therefore I should be allowed to go
- logic is a useful way to combine established ideas to of using established ideas to support the existence of a new idea
- looking for logic in an argument can help you decide whether you should agree with somebody or wait for more information

positive psychology (jfb, g+)

a great 12 minute or so talk on positive psychology and which in summary says


we teach people how to eliminate weird/outlying data in a statistically valid way so we can find a line of best fit.  which is fantastic if we're trying to find out about the the average but less useful if we're interested in potential

we're creating the cult of the average with science. if we study what is merely average we will remain merely average

instead of deleting that weird/outlying data we should study it to understand why, and maybe from that we can glean info on how we can move the entire average up

or take the news on tv - the majority of the information is not positive it's negative. Very quickly our brains start to think that's an accurate ratio of negative to positive in the world.

so it's not necessarily the reality that shapes us, but the lens through which our brain views the world that shapes our reality. And if we can change the lens ......

90 percent of our long-term happiness is predicted not by the external world but by the way our brain processes the world.  only 255 of job successes are predicted by intelligence.   75% of job successes are predicted by our optimism levels, our social support and our ability to see stress as a challenge instead of as a threat.

most companies and schools follow this formula for success - if I work harder then i'll be more successful and if I'm more successful, then I'll be happier.  but the trouble with this approach is that every time your brain has a success, you just change the goalposts of what success looks like (e.g. you got good grades, now you have to get better grades).  so what we have done is push happiness over the cognitive horizon as a society. and that's because we think we have to be successful and then we'll be happier.

but the real problem is that our brains actually work in the opposite order. if you can raise somebody's level of positivity in the present, then their brain experiences a happiness advantage because our brain at positive performs significantly better than it does at negative, neutral or stressed. our intelligence rises, our creativity rises, our energy levels rise.  our brain at positive is 31% more productive than our brain at negative, neutral or stressed. you're 37% better at sales. Doctors are 19% faster, more accurate at coming up with the correct diagnosis when positive instead of negative, neutral or stressed. 

which means we can reverse the formula. 

if we can find a way of becoming positive in the present, then our brains cam work even more successfully as we're able to work harder, faster and more intelligently.

there are ways you can train your brain to be able to become more positive over 21 days

3 gratitudes - write down 3 new things you're grateful for for 21 days in a row (at the end of that 21 days your brain starts to retain a pattern of scanning the world, not for the negative, but for the positive first) 

journaling  - daily about one positive experience you've had over the past 24 hours allows your brain to re-live it.

exercise - teaches your brain that your behaviour matters

meditation  - allows your brain to get over the cultural ADHD that we've been creating by trying to do multiple tasks at once and allows our brains to focus on the task at hand. 

random acts of kindness  - are conscious acts of kindness - when you open up your facebook or twitter or email - write one positive thing praising or thanking somebody in your social support network.

situations matter

via brain pickings