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Showing posts with label PM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PM. Show all posts

Friday, 8 March 2024

What was said before or in the 6/3/24 UK Budget - which claims were partly or wholly untrue?

The excellent Full Fact organisation are brilliant at working out whether claims made by politicians are factually correct, or not.  I thoroughly recommend you sign up for their newsletter via email.

The table below is summarised from their recent analysis of the claims made in the 6/3/24 budget or shortly before it.

From the summary in the table below, it seems to me that politicians either choose to not be crystal clear in what they are claiming, or are unclear unwittingly.  Maybe they need to set an expectation with their staff and advisors that any numbers produced to be used in public should be clear, concise and the truth?

What was said before or in the 6/3/24 UK Budget

The facts


Falling Debt - Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said, “debt is falling in line with our fiscal rules”.



Debt is not currently falling; it is forecast to peak in 2026-28 before falling.


2p National Insurance cut – Mr Hunt claimed that, combined with the previous 2p cut made last autumn, this amounted to a £900 tax cut for the average employee.



The £900 is correct, however this saving will be eaten into as personal tax thresholds are frozen, so in real terms they reduce each year by whatever the inflation rate is.


Disposable Income – Ahead of the Budget there were a couple of different claims about household incomes 2010.

1)      12% increase since 2010.

2)      In the 13 years since 2010 it grew by 11%

 

 

 

1)      Not quite by 12%

2)      2) The 28.6% & 11% figures are correct when looking at quarterly data for real household disposable income per capita.



£450 p.a. saving for the average worker from the previous NI cut – a claim made in advance of the budget via an X post from the account of the Conservative Party.

 


Roughly true. However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says when the frozen thresholds for paying NI and income tax are accounted for, someone on an average salary will only save £130.  

In addition, if the thresholds remain frozen until 2027/28, as is planned, then IFS estimates the average worker will be paying around £440 a year more in direct tax at that point, compared with 2021.



“25 tax rises in this Parliament alone” – a claim made on 28/2/24 on Times Radio [1.54] by labour politician James Murray MP (Shadow Treasury minister) repeats 25 tax rises claim

 

 


Labour hasn’t published how it arrives at the 25 claim.  In January Full Fact was sent a list of 25 tax rises since 2019 by a labour peer who is shadow Treasury minister.  But the list misses out others. 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies told Full Fact that counting the number of specific tax rises “isn’t very interesting or meaningful”.   What’s more significant is that this is “the biggest tax-raising parliament in modern times”.



“7 consecutive quarters of no growth” – on overall GDP - claims Labour MP Sarah Owen at PM’s Questions on 28/2/24


Statement as quoted unclear, not true for GDP overall.  Ms Owen has since clarified on social media that she was referring GDP per capita growth, though she did not specify this in her question.

GDP overall has fallen over the past two consecutive quarters but has seen some periods of limited growth within the past seven quarters.  However, GDP per capita has either decreased or seen zero growth over the last seven consecutive quarters.


Inflation is ‘continuing to fall’ – Say PM Rishi Sunak at the 28/2/24 PM’s Questions.

Note - Inflation is measured by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in two main ways—CPI, which stands for Consumer Prices Index, which measures the change in the price of everyday goods and services, and CPIH, which measures this as well as owner-occupier housing costs and Council Tax.

 


Not quite true.  Inflation is measured in two ways, CPI and CPIH. The ONS considers CPIH the more comprehensive measure of inflation.

CPI inflation has fallen by 7.1 percentage points since October 2022. CPIH has fallen 5.4 percentage points. 

Both measures have levelled off over the last three months, so arguably aren’t quite “continuing to fall”..

 

Friday, 21 October 2022

If Boris can afford to be PM again, then don't doubt the Conservatives will vote for that

So what a success Liz Truss was as a PM.   Not.  Our "I'm not a quitter" impoverished Leeds Roundhay school educated ex-leader appears to have, well there's no easy way of sugar coating this, quit.

Of course, some are painting this recent unfortunate history as being something about her or Kwasi Kwarteng's failings.   The Conservatives call to their own and to us is: to pull together; put the country first; choose somebody competent to be the next PM.  Some reports in the media are that, if more than one candidate gets more than 100 MPs support, then Conservative party members might be involved again in picking our PM.

Meanwhile the blessed Boris's name is being mentioned again.  What doesn't seem to have occured to his backers is that, given his anticipated speaking and journalist fees, Boris can't afford to be PM again.  So just like that expensive wallpaper issue, maybe some rich Tory backer needs to come forward to top up a Boris PM's salary.


Against all of this spin and miss-direction, lets get a couple of things straight.

1) The Conservative party is putting its own, not the country's future first.

2) Conservative members voted Liz Truss in, so their credentials as talent spotters are zero.

3) Conservative MPs supported Boris way after it was clear he had broken the law and did not understand the concept of truth.  So their ability to speak truth to power seems limited.

4) The following miss-named Think Tanks all thought the mini-budget was a great idea - Institute of Economic Affairs, Taxpayers Alliance, Adam Smith Institute and Centre for Policy Studies.  Lets hope when the media invites their input in future the first question is always, "So why did you welcome Liz Truss's mini -budget?"

What we need now, we are told, is a serious, competent conservative leader to lead us forward with a validated economic plan for more glorious years of conservative rule.

Indeed, some are calling for an election now, which of course won't happen.  And opponents of the conservatives may well wish for two more years of chaos, so the opinion polls can go negative on support for the Conservatives.

Which leaves us with the uncomfortable reality of what its like for the rest of us.  Food prices are up, energy prices are up, borrowing costs are up, housing costs are up, waiting lists for healthcare are up, vacancies in health care, social care, crop picking and hospitality sectors are all up.  And thats not rhetoric from the anti-growth coalition, its the quaint and apparently unwelcomed facts and truth.

After 12 years the conservatives have run out of credible costed ideas to make a difference, they have run out of credible experienced individuals to form a government, and. according to opinion polls, they have run out of the public's support for their approach to governing.  

Their Humpty Dumpty self absorbed, self serving, self honouring, self privileging, self profiting  approach to politics has fallen off the wall and can't be put back together again, however many king's horses and men they dedicate to that task.  The Kings comment on all of this .. "Dear oh dear, anyway .... "




Wednesday, 25 May 2022

How will you change Boris?

So today the UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson apologised.  

In response to the report from Sue Gray he apologised for all the Covid rule breaking parties held in No. 10.  The parties held as the majority of the public followed the Covid rules announced in his own daily televised briefings from No.10.
He apologised. 

 He took full responsibility. 

 He said he hadn't lied to the House of Commons when he said No. 10 had followed the Covid rules, because he believed he was attending work events. 

He said he had been humbled and had learnt a lesson. 

He said in response to all of this that at No.10 the entire senior management had been changed. 

He said his party is going to go on and win the next general election. 

And maybe they will given he and his collegaues have played us all for fools.  Leaving it to us, the little people, to follow the rules.  Which they plainly don't think apply to themselves.

Perhaps the only question left for Boris, given what the content of the Sue Gray report, is,

"How will you change Boris?"

Some detail 

In the Commons today just after 12:42 the Prime Minister, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, responding to the Sue Gray Report, apologised.  He took "full responsibility for everything that took place on my watch". 

In doing so he "set out the context, not to mitigate or to absolve myself in any way" and that "I am happy to set on the record now that when I came to this House and said in all sincerity that the rules and guidance had been followed at all times, it was what I believed to be true". 

In response to the report's findings the PM reported that at No. 10 "The entire senior management has changed". 

He concluded "by saying that I am humbled, and I have learned a lesson" and that he was grateful to Sue Gray for her report and due to it "we will be able to move on and focus on the priorities of the British people". 

A variety of those in the House of Commons Chamber responded to the PM's statement and I've picked out a couple of the PM's responses below: 

 - "at the time when I spoke to this House, I believed that what I was doing was attending work events, and, with the exception of the event in the Cabinet Room, that is a view that has been vindicated by the investigation";

- "we are going to go on and win the next general election".

Hansard record for 22/5/22 from which the quotes above are taken.

Thursday, 13 January 2022

doing right or wrong - what principles govern how UK PM Boris Johnson behaves?

Whilst listening to the UK news this morning I was struck by how at the heart of Boris' statement on attending a party last year was this burning question "What moral principles  govern his behaviour?"



In the televised PM Questions yesterday Boris apologised - possibly.  He also provided the excuse that he thought the party last year that he admitted attending, (with bring your own booze), was actually a "work event", and so within the rules. Boris said that with hindsight he realised the rules had not been followed.  

In his statement he used language like "I regret" and "I apologise", but he also used language like "We didn't get it right".  Watching a re-run of his statement I thought he looked like a schoolboy who had been caught breaking the rules, and who had been forced to apologise when he didn't want to apologise really.  

Given the public's view that his familiarity with the truth is distant, many commentators thought his apology was a non-apology.  And that his "work event" excuse was an insult to those members of the public who had followed the rules.

One definition of ethics is that it is the moral principles that govern a person's behaviour.

So what are the moral principles that govern his behaviour?  From the statement yesterday, and events before that, I'd suggest the following as a started for ten:

1) Assume rules don't apply to yourself or your friends.
2) Work on the assumption that you'll get away with breaking the rules.
3) If people query your rule breaking then follow these steps:
        a) deny you have broken the rules;
        b) if a) doesn't work try to get the rules changed so your behaviour didn't break them;
        c) if b) doesn't work get somebody to rule that you did, in fact, follow the rules;
        d) if c) doesn't work appoint somebody who works for you to review what went on;
        e) refuse to discuss any alleged rule breaking till d)'s review has concluded;
        f) if in the meantime you are pressured to apologise try not to;
        g) if e) & f) don't work and you have to make an apology do so but:
                i) use "we" more than "I" in your apology;
               ii) claim at the time it wasn't clear you were breaking rules;
               iii) get friends to cite your rule breaking as a minor sideshow to your achievements.  





Friday, 1 January 2021

Fact Update - Under the xmas eve #Brexit Agreement its simply not true that the #UK is #unfettered in its control of its own regulations

When Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, announced on xmas eve 2020 that the EU and UK were both signing up to a Brexit Agreement I couldn't quite believe it.  I thought hats off to the EU & UK for avoiding the economic disaster that would have flowed from no deal.

In his announcement Boris said the UK had taken back control of a number of things, for example, "We have taken back control of every jot and tittle of our regulation in a way that is complete and unfettered," (the full text from the British PM's xmas eve announcement is at the foot of this post).

Now just because a deal has been done doesn't mean that the 48.1% of those who voted against Brexit will be happy.  For many of them leaving the EU is still a bad idea.

But for the 51.9% who voted yes to Brexit I initially thought they could all have a bit of a xmas celebration.  After all, as Boris had set out on xmas eve, a no deal had been avoided and the UK had taken back control.

Given that our PM's previous announcements have previously been criticised as been bombastic, I thought I'd better actually check that what he said in his announcement was actually true.  To do this fact check comprehensively I'd have to read all 1246 pages of the agreement - and frankly I doin't have the time for that.  

So instead I read the UK Governments summary of the agreement, and the EU's summary materials also.

If you voted for leaving the EU and getting back control you're not going to like what I found.

The Agreement between the EU and the UK is basically a commitment to ensure a level playing field between the parties.

If one side thinks that commitment has been breached it can suspend its own obligations in a proportionate way.  Breaches are submitted to an independent arbitration panel.  If that panel find a breach has taken place then the offending party has to rectify the breach or provide compensation for its effects.  Either side needs to give 12 months notice to terminate the agreement.

As paragraph 81 on page 18 of the UK's "Summary Explainer" says  - my emphasis - "Both sides have the right to set their own laws, subject to the broad constraints of this Agreement in this area as in any other. And both sides have the right, in certain constrained ways, and subject to arbitration, to take countermeasures if they believe they are being damaged by measures taken by the other Party in subsidy policy, labour and social policy, or climate and environment policy. If such measures are used too frequently either side can trigger a review of these provisions and the trade aspects of the Treaty more broadly, aiming to end with a different balance of rights and obligations."

So what the PM said, that the UK is unfettered in its control of its own regulations, is factually incorrect.

Instead of having his cake and eating it Boris appears to have failed to get the cake into his mouth and has instead smeared it all over his face to demonstrate what a clown he is.



Text of British PMs Xmas Eve 2020 Brexit Deal Announcement

"It is four and a half years since the British people voted to take back control of their money, their borders, their laws, and their waters and to leave the European Union.  And earlier this year we fulfilled that promise and we left on January 31 with that oven-ready deal.  Since that time we have been getting on with our agenda, enacting the points-based immigration system that you voted for and that will come into force on January 1, and doing free trade deals with 58 countries around the world and preparing the new relationship with the EU.  And there have been plenty of people who have told us that the challenges of the Covid pandemic have made this work impossible, and that we should extend the transition period and incur yet more delay.  And I rejected that approach precisely because beating Covid is our number one national priority and I wanted to end any extra uncertainty and to give this country the best possible chance of bouncing back strongly next year.

And so I am very pleased that this afternoon that we have completed the biggest trade deal yet, worth £660 billion.  A comprehensive Canada style free trade deal between the UK and the EU, a deal that will protect jobs across this country.  A deal that will allow UK goods and components to be sold without tariffs and without quotas in the EU market.  A deal which will if anything should allow our companies and our exporters to do even more business with our European friends, and yet which achieves something that the people of this country instinctively knew was doable but which they were told was impossible.

We have taken back control of laws and our destiny.  We have taken back control of every jot and tittle of our regulation in a way that is complete and unfettered.  From January 1 we are outside the customs union, and outside the single market.  British laws will be made solely by the British Parliament, interpreted by UK judges sitting in UK courts.  And the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice will come to an end.  

We will be able to set our own standards, to innovate in the way that we want, to originate new frameworks for the sectors in which this country leads the world, from biosciences to financial services, artificial intelligence and beyond.  We will be able to decide how and where we are going to stimulate new jobs and new hope, with freeports and new green industrial zones.  We will be able to cherish our landscape and our environment in the way we choose, backing our farmers and backing British food and agricultural production.  

And for the first time since 1973 we will be an independent coastal state with full control of our waters with the UK’s share of fish in our waters rising substantially from roughly half today to closer to two thirds in five and a half years’ time after which there is no theoretical limit beyond those placed by science or conservation on the quantity of our own fish that we can fish in our waters.  And to get ready for that moment those fishing communities we will be helped with a big £100 million programme to modernise their fleets and the fish processing industry.

And I want to stress that although of course the arguments with our European friends and partners were sometimes fierce this is, I believe a good deal for the whole of Europe and for our friends and partners as well.  Because it will not be a bad thing for the EU to have a prosperous and dynamic and contented UK on your doorstep, it will be a good thing, it will drive jobs and prosperity across the whole continent.  And I don’t think it will be a bad thing if we in the UK do things differently, or a take a different approach to legislation, because in so many ways our basic goals are the same.  

And in the context of this giant free trade zone that we’re jointly creating the stimulus of regulatory competition will, I think, benefit us both.  And if one side believes it is somehow being unfairly undercut by the other, then, subject to independent third party arbitration and provided the measures are proportionate, we can either of us decide, as sovereign equals, to protect our consumers.

But this treaty explicitly envisages that such action should only happen infrequently and the concepts of uniformity and harmonisation are banished in favour of mutual respect and mutual recognition and free trade.

And for squaring that circle, for finding the philosopher’s stone that’s enabled us to do this I want to thank President von der Leyen of the European Commission and our brilliant negotiators led by Lord Frost and Michel Barnier, on the EU side Stephanie Rousseau as well as Oliver Lewis, Tim Barrow, Lindsay Appleby and many others. Their work will be available for scrutiny, followed by a parliamentary vote, I hope, on December 30.

This agreement, this deal above all means certainty.  It means certainty for the aviation industry and the hauliers who have suffered so much in the Covid pandemic.  It means certainty for the police and the border forces and the security services and all those that we rely on across Europe to keep us safe.  It means certainty for our scientists who will be able to continue to work together on great collective projects, because although we want the UK to be a science superpower, we also want to be a collaborative science superpower.  And above all it means certainty for business from financial services to our world-leading manufacturers, our car industry, certainty for those working in high skilled jobs in firms and factories across the whole country.

Because there will be no palisade of tariffs on January 1, and there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade.  And instead there will be a giant free trade zone of which we will at once be a member and at the same time be able to do our own free trade deals as one UK, whole and entire, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales together.

And I should stress this deal was done by a huge negotiating team from every part of the UK, and it will benefit every part of our United Kingdom, helping to unite and level up across the country.  And so I say again directly to our EU friends and partners, I think this deal means a new stability and a new certainty in what has sometimes been a fractious and difficult relationship. We will be your friend, your ally, your supporter and indeed, never let it be forgotten, your number one market.

Because although we have left the EU, this country will remain culturally, emotionally, historically, strategically and geologically attached to Europe, not least through the four million EU nationals who have requested to settle in the UK over the last four years and who make an enormous contribution to our country and to our lives.  

And I say to all of you at home, at the end of this toughest of years, that our focus in the weeks ahead is of course on defeating the pandemic.  And on beating coronavirus and rebuilding our economy and delivering jobs across the country and I am utterly confident that we can and will do it.  

By today we have vaccinated almost 800,000 people and we have also today resolved a question that has bedevilled our politics for decades, and it is up to us all together, as a newly and truly independent nation, to realise the immensity of this moment and to make the most of it.

Happy Christmas to you all.   That’s the good news from Brussels – now for the sprouts.

Sunday, 19 January 2020

3min 44sec @AP_Archive clip - Indira #Gandhi Becomes PM - 1966 | Today In History | 19 Jan



text from youtube "On January 19, 1966, Indira Gandhi was chosen to be prime minister of India by the National Congress party."

Saturday, 19 January 2019

3min 44sec @AP_Archive clip - Indira Gandhi Becomes PM - 1966 | Today In History | 19 Jan



text from youtube "On January 19, 1966, Indira Gandhi was chosen to be prime minister of India by the National Congress party."