What was said before or in the 6/3/24 UK Budget - which claims were partly or wholly untrue?

The excellent Full Fact organisation are brilliant at working out whether claims made by politicians are factually correct, or not.  I thoroughly recommend you sign up for their newsletter via email.

The table below is summarised from their recent analysis of the claims made in the 6/3/24 budget or shortly before it.

From the summary in the table below, it seems to me that politicians either choose to not be crystal clear in what they are claiming, or are unclear unwittingly.  Maybe they need to set an expectation with their staff and advisors that any numbers produced to be used in public should be clear, concise and the truth?

What was said before or in the 6/3/24 UK Budget	The facts
Falling Debt - Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said, “debt is falling in line with our fiscal rules”.	Debt is not currently falling; it is forecast to peak in 2026-28 before falling.
2p National Insurance cut – Mr Hunt claimed that, combined with the previous 2p cut made last autumn, this amounted to a £900 tax cut for the average employee.	The £900 is correct, however this saving will be eaten into as personal tax thresholds are frozen, so in real terms they reduce each year by whatever the inflation rate is.
Disposable Income – Ahead of the Budget there were a couple of different claims about household incomes 2010. 1)      12% increase since 2010. 2)      In the 13 years since 2010 it grew by 11%	1)      Not quite by 12% 2)      2) The 28.6% & 11% figures are correct when looking at quarterly data for real household disposable income per capita.
£450 p.a. saving for the average worker from the previous NI cut – a claim made in advance of the budget via an X post from the account of the Conservative Party.	Roughly true. However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says when the frozen thresholds for paying NI and income tax are accounted for, someone on an average salary will only save £130.   In addition, if the thresholds remain frozen until 2027/28, as is planned, then IFS estimates the average worker will be paying around £440 a year more in direct tax at that point, compared with 2021.
“25 tax rises in this Parliament alone” – a claim made on 28/2/24 on Times Radio [1.54] by labour politician James Murray MP (Shadow Treasury minister) repeats 25 tax rises claim	Labour hasn’t published how it arrives at the 25 claim.  In January Full Fact was sent a list of 25 tax rises since 2019 by a labour peer who is shadow Treasury minister.  But the list misses out others.  The Institute for Fiscal Studies told Full Fact that counting the number of specific tax rises “isn’t very interesting or meaningful”.   What’s more significant is that this is “the biggest tax-raising parliament in modern times”.
“7 consecutive quarters of no growth” – on overall GDP - claims Labour MP Sarah Owen at PM’s Questions on 28/2/24	Statement as quoted unclear, not true for GDP overall.  Ms Owen has since clarified on social media that she was referring GDP per capita growth, though she did not specify this in her question. GDP overall has fallen over the past two consecutive quarters but has seen some periods of limited growth within the past seven quarters.  However, GDP per capita has either decreased or seen zero growth over the last seven consecutive quarters.

Inflation is ‘continuing to fall’ – Say PM Rishi Sunak at the 28/2/24 PM’s Questions. Note - Inflation is measured by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in two main ways—CPI, which stands for Consumer Prices Index, which measures the change in the price of everyday goods and services, and CPIH, which measures this as well as owner-occupier housing costs and Council Tax.

Not quite true.  Inflation is measured in two ways, CPI and CPIH. The ONS considers CPIH the more comprehensive measure of inflation. CPI inflation has fallen by 7.1 percentage points since October 2022. CPIH has fallen 5.4 percentage points.  Both measures have levelled off over the last three months, so arguably aren’t quite “continuing to fall”..

 

credit card #debt explained with a glass of water

found via free technology for teachers

#CofE Report on #Debt posted 1 day early by mistake takes up 2 of @ProfSteveKeen 's suggestions

Earlier this morning I was just looking on the CofE website to see if there were any new press announcements when I saw this news release. 

As you can see from the title it was obviously wrongly posted a day too early.

Luckily I took a screenshot of it when i saw it as it was so extraordinary.

When I returned to the site a few minutes later it had disappeared.

The Bank of England Bulletin the News release mentions appears real and can be found here

The economist mentioned - Steve Keen - is also real.

#uk #debt #map

via jubilee plus or go to the payplan site

difference between debt and deficit (by the centre for policy studies)

via frasernelson

with #hindsight we should have known better

ht to the perfect storm energy, finance and the end of growth report by dr tim morgan  - global head of research  - which you can find as a pdf on the tullettprebon website - (found via @jamesdelingpole)

and from which I summarised the following ... 

with hindsight we should have known that:

-  the west outsourcing production and so skilled well paid jobs without making corresponding reductions in consumption was madness;

- the accumulation of unprecedented debt over the last 30 years to fill the gap between production and consumption was only viable on the insane assumption that debt could go on increasing indefinitely;

- key economic and fiscal statistics were delusory  and massaged out of all relation to reality;

- the falling ratio of energy extracted to energy used to extract it meant energy would get more expensive which would carry through into the cost of almost everything – including food;

- we were nearing the end of some 250 years in which growth was assumed to be normal and so our culture of instant gratification would have to change - if not willingly then by been enforced upon society by the reversal of economic growth;

- the failure of near zero interest rates, stimulus spend and the printing of money on a gigantic scale told us the tools that worked in the past were not working anymore which should have indicated to us that something profoundly different was going on;

- when we blamed the bankers or the politicians or the corporations or the advertising industry we were really blaming ourselves for falling for the consumerist message of instant gratification, for buying imported goods, for borrowing far more than was healthy, and for electing glib and vacuous political leaders

uk debt

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