The excellent Full Fact organisation are brilliant at working out whether claims made by politicians are factually correct, or not. I thoroughly recommend you sign up for their newsletter via email.
The table below is summarised from their recent analysis of the claims made in the 6/3/24 budget or shortly before it.
From the summary in the table below, it seems to me that politicians either choose to not be crystal clear in what they are claiming, or are unclear unwittingly. Maybe they need to set an expectation with their staff and advisors that any numbers produced to be used in public should be clear, concise and the truth?
|
What was said before or in the 6/3/24 UK Budget |
The facts |
|
Falling
Debt - Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said, “debt is falling in line with our
fiscal rules”. |
Debt is not
currently falling; it is forecast to peak in 2026-28 before falling. |
|
2p National
Insurance cut – Mr Hunt claimed that, combined with the previous 2p cut
made last autumn, this amounted to a £900 tax cut for the average employee. |
The £900 is
correct, however this saving will be eaten into as personal tax thresholds
are frozen, so in real terms they reduce each year by whatever the inflation
rate is. |
|
Disposable
Income – Ahead of the Budget there were a couple of different claims
about household incomes 2010. 1)
12% increase since 2010. 2)
In the 13 years since 2010 it grew by 11% |
1)
Not quite by 12% 2)
2) The 28.6% & 11% figures are correct
when looking at quarterly data for real household disposable income per
capita. |
|
£450 p.a. saving
for the average worker from the previous NI cut – a claim made in advance
of the budget via an X post from the account of the Conservative Party. |
Roughly true. However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says when the frozen thresholds for paying NI and income tax are accounted for, someone on an average salary will only save £130. In addition, if the thresholds
remain frozen until 2027/28, as is planned, then IFS estimates the average
worker will be paying around £440 a year more in direct tax at that point,
compared with 2021. |
|
“25 tax
rises in this Parliament alone” – a claim made on 28/2/24 on Times Radio
[1.54] by labour politician James Murray MP (Shadow Treasury minister)
repeats 25 tax rises claim |
Labour hasn’t
published how it arrives at the 25 claim.
In January Full Fact was sent a list of 25 tax rises since 2019 by a labour
peer who is shadow Treasury minister. But
the list misses out others. The Institute for Fiscal Studies told Full Fact that counting the number of specific tax rises “isn’t very interesting or meaningful”. What’s more significant is that this is “the biggest tax-raising parliament in modern times”. |
|
“7 consecutive
quarters of no growth” – on overall GDP - claims Labour MP Sarah Owen at
PM’s Questions on 28/2/24 |
Statement as quoted unclear, not true for GDP overall. Ms
Owen has since clarified on social media that she was referring GDP per
capita growth, though she did not specify this in her question. GDP overall has fallen over the past two consecutive quarters but has seen some periods of limited growth within the past seven quarters. However, GDP per capita has either decreased or seen zero growth over the last seven consecutive quarters. |
Inflation
is ‘continuing to fall’ – Say PM Rishi Sunak at the 28/2/24 PM’s Questions.
Note - Inflation is measured by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in two main ways—CPI, which stands for Consumer Prices Index, which measures the change in the price of everyday goods and services, and CPIH, which measures this as well as owner-occupier housing costs and Council Tax. |
Not quite
true. Inflation is measured in two
ways, CPI and CPIH. The ONS considers
CPIH the more comprehensive measure of inflation. CPI inflation has fallen by 7.1 percentage points since October 2022. CPIH has fallen 5.4 percentage points. Both measures have levelled off over the last three months, so arguably aren’t quite “continuing to fall”.. |
