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Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth. Show all posts

Friday, 8 March 2024

What was said before or in the 6/3/24 UK Budget - which claims were partly or wholly untrue?

The excellent Full Fact organisation are brilliant at working out whether claims made by politicians are factually correct, or not.  I thoroughly recommend you sign up for their newsletter via email.

The table below is summarised from their recent analysis of the claims made in the 6/3/24 budget or shortly before it.

From the summary in the table below, it seems to me that politicians either choose to not be crystal clear in what they are claiming, or are unclear unwittingly.  Maybe they need to set an expectation with their staff and advisors that any numbers produced to be used in public should be clear, concise and the truth?

What was said before or in the 6/3/24 UK Budget

The facts


Falling Debt - Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said, “debt is falling in line with our fiscal rules”.



Debt is not currently falling; it is forecast to peak in 2026-28 before falling.


2p National Insurance cut – Mr Hunt claimed that, combined with the previous 2p cut made last autumn, this amounted to a £900 tax cut for the average employee.



The £900 is correct, however this saving will be eaten into as personal tax thresholds are frozen, so in real terms they reduce each year by whatever the inflation rate is.


Disposable Income – Ahead of the Budget there were a couple of different claims about household incomes 2010.

1)      12% increase since 2010.

2)      In the 13 years since 2010 it grew by 11%

 

 

 

1)      Not quite by 12%

2)      2) The 28.6% & 11% figures are correct when looking at quarterly data for real household disposable income per capita.



£450 p.a. saving for the average worker from the previous NI cut – a claim made in advance of the budget via an X post from the account of the Conservative Party.

 


Roughly true. However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says when the frozen thresholds for paying NI and income tax are accounted for, someone on an average salary will only save £130.  

In addition, if the thresholds remain frozen until 2027/28, as is planned, then IFS estimates the average worker will be paying around £440 a year more in direct tax at that point, compared with 2021.



“25 tax rises in this Parliament alone” – a claim made on 28/2/24 on Times Radio [1.54] by labour politician James Murray MP (Shadow Treasury minister) repeats 25 tax rises claim

 

 


Labour hasn’t published how it arrives at the 25 claim.  In January Full Fact was sent a list of 25 tax rises since 2019 by a labour peer who is shadow Treasury minister.  But the list misses out others. 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies told Full Fact that counting the number of specific tax rises “isn’t very interesting or meaningful”.   What’s more significant is that this is “the biggest tax-raising parliament in modern times”.



“7 consecutive quarters of no growth” – on overall GDP - claims Labour MP Sarah Owen at PM’s Questions on 28/2/24


Statement as quoted unclear, not true for GDP overall.  Ms Owen has since clarified on social media that she was referring GDP per capita growth, though she did not specify this in her question.

GDP overall has fallen over the past two consecutive quarters but has seen some periods of limited growth within the past seven quarters.  However, GDP per capita has either decreased or seen zero growth over the last seven consecutive quarters.


Inflation is ‘continuing to fall’ – Say PM Rishi Sunak at the 28/2/24 PM’s Questions.

Note - Inflation is measured by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in two main ways—CPI, which stands for Consumer Prices Index, which measures the change in the price of everyday goods and services, and CPIH, which measures this as well as owner-occupier housing costs and Council Tax.

 


Not quite true.  Inflation is measured in two ways, CPI and CPIH. The ONS considers CPIH the more comprehensive measure of inflation.

CPI inflation has fallen by 7.1 percentage points since October 2022. CPIH has fallen 5.4 percentage points. 

Both measures have levelled off over the last three months, so arguably aren’t quite “continuing to fall”..

 

Wednesday, 11 January 2017

3min 11sec animated @wef clip on #2017 Global #Risk Report - 5 main ones - 1) Economic Growth & Reform, 2) Rebuilding Communities, 3) Managing Technological Disruption, 4) Strengthening Global Cooperation, 5) Accelerating action on Climate Change



1) Economic Growth & Reform - from 1900 to 1980's inequality in industrialised world reduced - but 2009 to 2012 income of top 1% in US grew by some 31% (for remaining 99% their income grew 0.5%) - challenge is to improve income equality

2) Rebuilding Communities - decades of rapid social & economic change have widened generational gaps and amplifies issues of national identity and cultural values.  Politics  is increasingly defined by a climate of post truth (emotive public debate aimed at dividing public opinion) - challenge is to find inclusive ways to bridge sharp cultural divides whilst preserving individual rights

3) Managing Technological Disruption - technology is radically transforming our world and shaping the risks we face. 86% of manufacturing job losses in the US between 1997 & 2007 were due to automation (compared to less than 14% due to trade). Almost 1/2 of all jobs are at risk due to rapid technological change the nature of work itself is also being transformed.  We need new collaborative systems to minimise the risks of dramatic social disruption and increasing income disparity.

4) Strengthening Global Cooperation - in 2016 there were repeated signs of a fraying commitment to global cooperation and a renewed interest in building up national weapons capabilities.  Progress towards multi-lateral trade agreements slowed down and prominet verdicts of international tribunals were rejected - reflecting a general loss of faith in collective security mechanisms

5) Accelerating action on Climate Change - whilst the Paris Agreement has been ratified by more than 110 countries the situation remains critical.  The last 16 years were among the 17 warmest on record.  To limit the risk of catastrophic climate change we need to keep glocal warming to within 2C.  To do this emissions must be reduced by 40-70% by 2050 and eliminated alltogether by 2100


Tuesday, 18 November 2014

#CofE Statistics for Mission 2013 - our mindset is stuck in an era when the population wasn't growing




So it seems to me that much of the analysis and commentary need to move on from a paradigm in which our population was not growing or was stable or slowly declining.  

In such a paradigm it made some kind of sense to look at the absolute numbers.  But now our population is growing we really do need to understand church attendance as a % of population.   The table below illustrates why.

Columns A to C take various absolute numbers and show that - mostly - the Diocese that are growing are the usual suspects.

But when we use church attendance as a % of population as a measure - the picture changes to one where no diocese are growing.  

The best that can be said is that (mostly) the Diocese whose absolute numbers are growing manage to keep their church attendance as a % of population stable.


The table on the right gives a snapshot of the top rankling Diocese using the % of their population that attends a CofE church (though this isn't the same as the diocese who've maintained this % between 2009 and 2013).

Comparing the Growing Diocese in the table above (in absolute numbers) with the high ranking ones in the table to the right  - you can see there are no similarities bar Ely & Guildford.

(For Information Coventry = 1.9%, Leicester 1.5%, London 1.9%, Newcastle 1.9%, Southwell & Nottingham 1.5% and Ripon & Leeds 1.9%)

Looking at the overall trend it appears that All Age Weekly Attendance as a % of diocese population has fallen from 2.1% in 2009 to 1.9% in 2013.

(Note that the Winchester % needs to be treated with caution as the estimate for that diocese population in the CofE 2013 statistics seems to have fallen significantly between 2012 & 2013)




So what conclusions have I come to from doing some of this analysis?


1) Those in the religious press need to move away from their traditional analysis of the absolute numbers.  The picture it paints is simply wrong in terms of which diocese are doing better than others 
(For example - page 6 of the 14/11/14 Church Times had an article headlined "Attendance slope still points downward" - which does paint overall a realistic picture.  But then in the same article there is a side box looking at 2009-13.  It lists the growing dioceses as being Ely, Guildford, Leicester, London, Manchester and Newcastle. Described as stable are Coventry and Ripon and Leeds. All the other diocese were listed as falling.  Although not saying so these statements appear to be based on the Average Sunday Attendance figures in table 2 of the 2013 Report.)

2) Comparison with similar institutions and looking at the falling % share of the general population paints a richer picture.  (E.g. In the Guardian newspaper Giles Fraser's Loose Canon column led with the headline "The Church of England is actually holding up pretty well in an adverse market" and a sub-headline summarising the thrust of his argument in the article was more people go to church on Sunday than go to Premier League stadiums on Saturday, or belong to all the political parties put together")

3) A big thanks is due to Dr Bev Botting and her team for getting the 2013 statistics out much more quickly than in recent years



Relevant links
- Others commentary on the 2013 statistics are linked to on this Thinking Anglicans post

- An earlier post on this blog summares insights into church growth from CofE research

- An earlier post on this blog summarises CofE Diocese strategies - in my view the feedback mechanism from new statistics and research into these strategies is often not explicit nor evident

Thursday, 5 June 2014

1 day @CofE #FaithResearch event on “The role of the Church in Society”

Yesterday I attended a @CofE #FaithResearch 1 day event on “The role of the Church in Society” in Birmingham UK.  What follows is a summary of the take-a-way ideas that struck me during the day – with help from the tweets of various people. 

Bishop David Walker introduced and closed the day. Various materials from the day are apparently due to be put in this section of the CofE website. When they are I’ll try and update this post as necessary.  As at 2/7/14 I have updated the post with links to all the slides from this section of the CofE website.  A big thanks to cofe stats and all the presenters - a useful day!



Opening session Spiritual Capital – www.williamtemplefoundation.org.uk - the role of the church in a post secular city – Dr Chris Baker. Slides are here

why should religious citizens have to hide their identity in public when it is the source of their energy ?

Chris walked us through the story of his research whilst commenting on the current state of play between religion, politics and public life in the UK and elsewhere.  Headline take-a-way ideas from my perspective are:

- physical regeneration of an area needs to be accompanied by personal and spiritual transformation of people.  Is not just about product, its also about process, people and feelings.

- to get best value from working with faith groups you need to not just work with the what but also the why. With the religious and spiritual capital as well as the social capital.
(social capital is about the importance of relationships, networks & norms that can be used to enrich individuals & communities (Putnam, 2000).  Religious Capital is the practical contribution to local/national life made by faith groups (Baker & Skinner, 2006).  Spiritual Capital energises religious capital by providing a theological identity & worshipping tradition, value system, moral vision, basis for faith .. embedded with faith groups & expressed in the lives of individuals)

- we are now in a post secular public sphere - its not about secularism as an ideology disappearing from the scene, its about the re-emergence (or new visibility) of religion.  We need to rediscover the wisdom, discernment & discipline linked with religious sources because they are "pre-political", independent, self generating and thus outside the power of the newly diminished state and the ever voracious market (the previous sentence and what follows are a summary of Habermas - neo-liberal capitalism & the enlightenment virtues of autonomy, individuality & property rights have led to modern liberal democratic states without the capacity to motivate citizens to form resistances & collectivities against this total wave of capitalism from within its own truth claims)

- pressure for religious citizens to mask their identity or discourse in the public square is unfair as secular citizens are not required to do the same

- spiritual capital is not the sole preserve of those religious.  Its properties as a value system and moral vision are a motivating force for those outside religions also.

- progressive localism ='s community strategies looking outwards, creating +'ve affinities, creating community solidarity, direct democracy and translocal struggle

- faith groups can be active agents of progressive localism providing local political leadership through their faith based engagement and acting as hubs of post secular rapprochment



First results from the 2013 Experiencing Ministry Survey – Dr Tim Ling and Dr Mike Clinton.  Slides are here

  1. . using a great looking Prezi to talk about the Experiencing ministry survey
They described the 2011 to 2015 process of research and consultation.  This aims to find out what sustains clergy (for a ministry that for many encompasses many different settings over decades) and ID factors that may support growth. An Experiences of Ministry Survey (EMS) in 2011, 2013 & due in 2015 is a major part of this research. More details are at http://www.experiencesofministry.org 

- EMS measures growth via a no. of Average Weekly Attendance (AWA) like measures but which also look at ratings of the level of change in attendance  over the last 24 months. 

- EMS also measures spiritual growth by using ratings of the level of change on items like Relationships (with God, self, others). 

- Other forms of numerical growth like Disciples and discipleship and ratings of the levels of change over the last 24 months are also used. 

Some findings are: 
- There are significant and positive relationships between AWA and EMS growth measures.

- On the Leadership Development Programme (LDP) element of the EMS survey the perceived effectiveness of leadership development by Diocese seems to vary considerably between diocese. 

-  There is also an emerging issue of how much time clergy spend on admin (which LDP don’t deal with) and indeed exactly what activities clergy categorise as being admin.



Session 1a – Equipping ministers for mission –– I didn’t attend these sessions and there were no pre-session handouts for me to summarise but I have inserted some relevant tweets. If materials get posted on the stats section of the CoE website I'll try to summarise them below.




Research & Statistics: Overview of CofE Clergy – Debbie Hore - Slides are here

    1. Over 10 years C of E total clergy figures stay at c11500, but 9% more are now self supporting. Thank you all SSM priests!



Young Vocations – Liz Boughton & Lis Goddard - Slides are here

  1. More married than single young men going forward, more single than married young women

Clergywomen in the CofE - Mandy Robbins

Slides are here
The science of clergy work-related psychological health: theory, assessment & evidence – Leslie Francis - Slides are here



Session 1b The Church Serving Society



What a difference a church makes: examining the hows and whys of church-based social action – Paul Bickley - Paul described some qualitative research based in ID’ing churches in areas of high deprivation and then using observation and interviews to ID what they were doing, how and why. Slides are here

  1. talking about the difference a church makes in local communities at

- What they were doing  - was characterised as: employment skills; life skills; child/youth work; neighbourliness; basic material needs. 

- How they were doing  - was reported as: Co-operative networks; macro problems/micro responses; attention to agency; creating & sustain public spaces (e.g. improving permanently outdoor furniture in church grounds that was being used as a space for football and exercise) . 

- Why they were doing this was described as: Good relationships both as a means and an end (often using “family” language); Oikos (home) and polis (public) – a bringing together of both these ways of being; Hope - providing such; Incarnation – the church is there for the long term (and often is the last “agency” left standing as government grants to other organisations are withdrawn whereas church is traditionally less dependent on such grants)



Using social media research methods to identify hidden churches – Ant Cooper - Slides also here

My slides of today's presentation are now available for download: Please feel free to retweet!

- Ant is using Twitter API to capture data from tweets on Sundays which mention church in the London area. He then “sieves” the data (putting to one side that data not relevant) to leave real tweets on church where location data is user enabled. He then looks at clusters of such tweets and maps these against known churches to ID hidden ones



The Church’s opportunity to engage strategically with issues of Human Enhancement – Justin Tomkins – Slides are here - Justin looked at ideas around using medical science to significantly prolong human lifespans or make them immortal or using genetics to create “super” capabilities. He mentioned the idea of using technology to “download” a person into a digital form (Ray Kurzweil).   He argued for more Christian involvement in this debate (whilst mentioning those christians already involved) and pointed out the potential contribution of Christian thinking on issues like: intrinsic human limits; Alpha & Omega; God working through history, cosmology and Phillippians 2 v 5-11 (the most human human).  Further info can be found at http:www.cis.org.uk




Session 2a - Growing the Church & education – I didn’t attend these sessions so have summarised below what the pre-session handouts say (where I have them) and inserted relevant tweets.



Strategy & development: an update on Church Growth Research – Kevin Norris - no pre-handout available - Slides are here



Strategies for growing a parish – Rev Roger Preece – Slides are here.  Roger mentions the key characteristics likely to be found in Growing Churches as set out in the “From Anecdote to Evidence” report and conference in early 2014.  (I have already summarised these in a previous post). His experience at his church was:


- they considered the make-up of the c7000 people in the parish and asked how the church was able to serve them and what sort of connections already existed (categories used in make included Families – Babies & Toddlers; Families – Primary Children; Teenagers; Students; Younger Adults; Older Adults; Retired & Able; Elderly & Infirm). 

- they asked what they could do for each of the groups to help them journey closer in faith through making increased connection with church community. 

- they developed a range of activities for each group of people and looked to ensure Bridging Points to allow people to move from the fringe to the centre. 

- they put significant effort into web presence, social media, local press and a high quality news-sheet delivered to each home



Education Division: Overview of CofE Education – Nigel Genders – CofE schools have a distinctive identity and ethos, popular with parents and families, where the development of social, spiritual and emotional intelligence is as important as academic achievement.  4443 CofE primary schools, 221 secondary schools, 166730 members of staff, 50500 classroom teachers, 1 million hours of clergy time p.a. working with children and young people in schools.  Further info can be found at www.churchofengland.org



NICER: Distinctively Christian Education in CofE Schools – Prof Trevor Cooling - What if Learning - Slides are here

Inspiring talk by Trevor Cooling on distinctiveness of Christian learning in WhatIfLearning project

- Looking at a christian ethics course the classroom practice of ethical reflection was framed and experienced by students as a conflict between two opposing sides.  Students were being inducted into imagining that christian ethics is primarily concerned with winning ethical disputes. 

- If however the primary obligation in christian ethics is to show love to one's opponents rather than win an argument (Bretherton 2006) then a different approach is required.  Example - On a subject like assisted suicide story-telling and pictures students were introduced to Tony Nicklinson - an energetic sportsman with a family  - and asked to engage in learning about his quality of life.  They were then introduced to the story of his stroke at 50 with locked-in syndrome and his campaign for the right to die.  In light of this they then returned to their consideration of quality of life and eventually had to distill 3 arguments for and 3 against assisted suicide. 

-  In this new approach students hopefully come to see christian ethics as an exercise in hearing and understanding different points of view before taking a position.  The information the students got was much the same.  The framing of the lesson and the imagination instilled in them were significantly different.  

- As christians we live between the resurrection and the final transformation of creation - the transformation is is foeshadowed but not fully realised.  A gospel shaped pedagogy is one where life as it should be in God's Kingdom is prefigured and promoted.  The role of gospel based distinctively christian education is to develop christian character and virtues in its staff and students; to develop wise stewards




Pakistani boys’ education; religious & of the world - Karamet Iqbal - no pre-handout available
Slides are here


Session 2b – The Church reaching society



Understanding your community: Tools from Research & Statistics – Louise McFerran – Louise described work done by CofE HQ on census output areas (they don’t match parish boundary areas well) and then using postcode data from Church Urban Fund (which they use in their poverty look up tool
 ) to get a closer match to parish boundaries. Spotlight Reports are available at a parish-ish level and have been sent to each Diocese (Guildford has their ones online). They look ideal for helping the analysis stage of Mission Action Planning.

Slides are here
Using the Census in the Church of Scotland – Fiona Tweedie - Slides are here - Fiona described similar work to that directly above done on Scottish census data and differences (it better matches to boundaries as the data is at smaller levels of disaggregation). Fiona also mentioned a User’s Guide for statistics for mission that they produced – titled “Who is my Neighbour” (which apparently is precisely the question most census data collection is designed to make sure can’t be answered)



Listening Church: using participatory research to discern vision – Liz Graveling. Liz described a piece of work to create a vision for a church. Slides are here


- It used facilitated listening groups to allow participation of all church members in the creation of the strategy. The groups were about listening to each others stories of them and their church to understand others perspectives. Groups were organised so individuals in each group generally knew each other. 

- This methodology is PRA - Participatory Research Approaches – pioneered? by Robert Chambers

- Other inputs included; questionnaires; profiling of members (mapping where they lived); More/Different/Try/Stop feedback from the facilitated groups.

Liz mentioned the need to avoid wish lists and the need for leaders to understand the issue of genuine (not token) listening - particularly in terms of what they will do if what was been said doesn't  gel with their ideas?



Establishment & myth making in secular society – Stephen Srikantha. Stephen said we’ve lost the language of faith but can learn from how modern myths (e.g. end poverty, democracy everywhere – agreed as a good thing but plainly not achieved in the here and now) are signs as to how we can use myths. He stressed the importance of not forcing our pre-conceived ideas on what ought to be done onto situations – and of being aware of the limits of our ways of thinking – to allow a proper encounter with the complexity of reality  (on which subject this recent post from this blog maybe of interest)



Credit where credit’s due: the CofE’s credit union initiative – Tom Sefton & Bethany Eckley.  Tom and Bethany gave an update on progress and some qualitative research.  Slides are here


- On progress there is some with rollout to clergy, PCC members and CofE staff soonish and a video due out soon to help explain some next steps (but the project is long term - years - in its timescale).  

- On the research Bethany people don't know a lot about CU's but want to find out.  Generally they see CU as being for other people.  CUs are big in Ireland and Canada so there maybe lessons to be learnt there.  






  • I got the sense that to work CUs need to change their image from been "for people with money problems" to one where all people see them as a good way of borrowing money (e.g for a car purchase).  Indeed from memory in a recent BBC Radio 4 Today interview with Sir Hector Sants it was stressed that attracting such type of credit business would be essential to the long term financial viability of CUs.