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Tuesday, 3 March 2015

Headlines from LSE analysis of #UK social #policy 2010-2015 in tabular form: #positives, #negatives & mixed outcomes - from @CASE_LSE papers found via @trustforlondon

Via a tweet from @trustforlondon I came across a number of @CASE_LSE papers.

The papers report on research produced by the Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion (CASE) at the London School of Economics

My categorization of the headlines from the summary reports is in the table below.  Beneath the table is the detail of the various headlines in the summary documents, plus links to the summary documents and the full papers. 





Positives
Postives & Negatives
Negatives
Social Policy, Poverty & Inequality
Savings from benefit cuts balanced out tax allowance increases and the “triple lock” on pensions
Early protection for the poor, but increasing poverty later

Tax & benefit changes benefited richer groups more, while contributing nothing to deficit
reduction

Pensioners were protected, children less so
Many services cut & increasing pressure on others

In Coalition’s early years relative poverty reduced but poverty rose against a fixed line
Still high levels of debt and deficit, and further cuts to come

Income inequality - it depends on what base you use
The combined impact of direct tax and cash transfer changes was mostly regressive, moving income from poorer households to those that were better off
The Under 5’s

The number of Sure Start centres fell by a fifth – but those remaining showed resilience at a time of spending cuts
Projections point to continuing redistribution of income away from poorer households and increased child poverty by 2020

Attempts to expand other support programmes for parents had mixed success
Tax-benefit reforms hit families with young children harder than other families, and poverty increased
Take-up of early education increased slightly for three- and four-year-olds and staff qualification levels continued to improve
The number of childcare places for young children held up, although daycare provision in children’s centres was more than halved


Key child development data changed little after 2010 – but it is too soon to know what impact Coalition policies may have had

Education
More young people were in full-time education and training
Overall attainment rose until 2013 then fell at GCSE
Some socio-economic gaps have widened again
Qualification levels continued to rise among 16 to 19-year olds…
Most of the increase in apprenticeships was among adults aged over 25  … and the number of adults achieving qualifications fell

Despite the rise in tuition fees, the proportion of 18-year olds applying to university increased


Employment
Unemployment fell steeply from 2013, while self-employment expanded and overall
employment reached a new peak
The Work Programme disappointed government expectations, although outcomes improved over time
Real earnings continued to fall as the recovery gathered pace

Evidence concerning the Pre-Work Programme is piecemeal, but more than 60,000 claimants were helped to start their own businesses
Nine out of ten Jobseeker’s Allowance recipients stopped claiming within a year, but Employment and Support Allowance claimants left at a much slower rate
Jobseeker’s Allowance claims rose and fell with unemployment, but the proportion of lone
parents claiming Income Support kept falling
Health & Adult Social Care
Community services became more targeted on individuals with the most complex needs

The proportion of adults with unmet care needs remained high under Labour and the Coalition

Healthcare indicators point to increasing pressures on access and quality, whilst satisfaction with the NHS declined


Obesity, smoking and alcohol consumption remained key concerns, and health inequalities remained deeply entrenched


Suicide and mental health problems remained more prevalent following the economic crisis


Despite rising demand for care services, the number of older people and other adults supported through local authorities declined dramatically

Quality of life indicators show improving outcomes among those who receive services…but there are continuing concerns about abuse and poor quality care in residential homes and community services
The number of disabled and elderly adults receiving unpaid care grew – as did the number of informal carers
Housing
The number of new home starts increased (from a very low base) by 40 per cent. A jump from 2012/13 appeared to be linked to the Help to Buy programme subsidising first time buyers, and to improving economic conditions generally
There was a slight increase in the already high proportion of planning applications receiving assent, although the total number of applications was low compared to past trends

The number of homeless households in temporary accommodation grew by 14 per cent, and the total number of new home completions and affordable completions fell from 2009/10 to 2013/14.

The number of ‘affordable’ housing starts also increased by 23 per cent.


The average energy efficiency (SAP) rating of homes improved slightly as a consequence of government schemes, but also the activities of owners


Area Regeneration and Neighbourhood Renewal

Regional job growth was concentrated in London and the South East
Funding for area / neighbourhood renewal work was severely curtailed

The early impact of business regeneration and community enterprise programmes fell well below expectations
Gaps in social and economic outcomes between disadvantaged and prosperous
neighbourhoods remained wide



Summary - The Coalition’s Social Policy Record 2010-2015  
Full paper

- Cuts in many services and increasing pressure on others
- Tax and benefit changes benefited richer groups more, while contributing nothing to deficit
reduction
- Early protection for the poor, but increasing poverty later
- Pensioners were protected, children less so 
- Too early to tell for many social and economic outcomes 
 - Still high levels of debt and deficit, and further cuts to come


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Cash Transfers, Poverty and Inequality 2010-2015 
Full paper

- Benefit uprating in the Coalition’s early years combined with the recessionary squeeze
on earnings to reduce relative poverty, but poverty rose against a fixed line
- Income inequality - it depends on what base you use
- Savings from benefit cuts balanced out tax allowance increases and the “triple lock” on pensions
- The combined impact of direct tax and cash transfer changes was mostly regressive,
moving income from poorer households to those that were better off 
- Projections point to continuing redistribution of income away from poorer households
and increased child poverty by 2020


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on the Under Fives: Policy Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015
Full paper

- The number of Sure Start centres fell by a fifth – but those remaining showed resilience at a time of spending cuts 
- Attempts to expand other support programmes for parents had mixed success.
- The number of childcare places for young children held up, although daycare provision in children’s centres was more than halved
- Take-up of early education increased slightly for three- and four-year-olds and staff qualification levels continued to improve 
- Tax-benefit reforms hit families with young children harder than other families, and poverty increased
- Key child development data changed little after 2010 – but it is too soon to know what impact Coalition policies may have had


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Schools: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015 
Full paper

- Overall attainment rose until 2013 then fell at GCSE
- Some socio-economic gaps have widened again
Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Further Education, Skills and Access to Higher Education 2010-2015  
Full paper

- More young people were in full-time education and training
- Qualification levels continued to rise among 16 to 19-year olds… 
- Despite the rise in tuition fees, the proportion of 18-year olds applying to university increased 
- Most of the increase in apprenticeships was among adults aged over 25 
- … and the number of adults achieving qualifications fell


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Employment: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015 
Full paper

- Unemployment fell steeply from 2013, while self-employment expanded and overall
employment reached a new peak
- The Work Programme disappointed government expectations, although outcomes improved over time
- Evidence concerning the Pre-Work Programme is piecemeal, but more than 60,000 claimants were helped to start their own businesses
- Nine out of ten Jobseeker’s Allowance recipients stopped claiming within a year, but
- Employment and Support Allowance claimants left at a much slower rate
- Jobseeker’s Allowance claims rose and fell with unemployment, but the proportion of lone
parents claiming Income Support kept falling
- Real earnings continued to fall as the recovery gathered pace


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Health: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015 Full paper

- Healthcare indicators point to increasing pressures on access and quality, whilst satisfaction with the NHS declined
 - Obesity, smoking and alcohol consumption remained key concerns, and health inequalities remained deeply entrenched 
- Suicide and mental health problems remained more prevalent following the economic crisis


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Adult Social Care: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015
Full paper

- Despite rising demand for care services, the number of older people and other adults supported through local authorities declined dramatically
- Community services became more targeted on individuals with the most complex needs
- The number of disabled and elderly adults receiving unpaid care grew – as did the number of informal carers
- The proportion of adults with unmet care needs remained high under Labour and the Coalition
- Quality of life indicators show improving outcomes among those who receive services…
- …but there are continuing concerns about abuse and poor quality care in residential homes and community services


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Housing: Policy, Spending and Outcomes 2010-2015 
Full paper

- The number of homeless households in temporary accommodation grew by 14 per cent, and the total number of new home completions and affordable completions fell from 2009/10 to 2013/14.
- But the number of new home starts increased (from a very low base) by 40 per cent. A jump from 2012/13 appeared to be linked to the Help to Buy programme subsidising first time buyers, and to improving economic conditions generally. 
- The number of ‘affordable’ housing starts also increased by 23 per cent.
- The average energy efficiency (SAP) rating of homes improved slightly as a consequence of government schemes, but also the activities of owners.
- There was a slight increase in the already high proportion of planning applications receiving assent, although the total number of applications was low compared to past trends


Summary - The Coalition’s Record on Area Regeneration and Neighbourhood Renewal 2010-2015 
Full paper

- Funding for renewal work was severely curtailed
- The early impact of business regeneration and community enterprise programmes fell well below expectations 
- Regional job growth was concentrated in London and the South East
- Gaps in social and economic outcomes between disadvantaged and prosperous
neighbourhoods remained wide

Saturday, 28 February 2015

7 Challenges to #Globalization & 5 lessons for geo-economics - from a @wef report

In the Introduction to the report Mark Leonard argues that "Geopolitical competition is reshaping the global economy and unravelling global power relationships and governance.  As tensions between great powers rage, the global businesses that once saw themselves as masters of the universe now feel like pawns in a game over which they have little control." 

He names the biggest conflicts as being Ukraine, China and its neighbours and ISIS and says the main battlefield is economic rather than military.

" The United States craves energy independence, China wants to stimulate domestic consumption, Germany wants to protect itself from the economic decisions of its neighbours, and Russia is trying to hedge against Western markets and the US-led dominated financial system."

"The biggest winners are states that are able to shape their own future – China, the United States, the European Union (EU). The biggest losers are international institutions and companies that cannot rely on the support of large states or the autonomy to hedge between them"


The report then goes onto to devote a chapter to each of the 7 challenges with different authors for each chapter

1) Economic warfare - by Karan Bhatia and Dmitri Trenin
2) The geopoliticization of trade talks -  by Takashi Mitachi
3) State capitalism 2.0 -  by Douglas Rediker
4) Competition for gated markets, not natural resources -  by Sergei Guriev and Hina Rabbani Khar
5) The survival of the biggest and hollowing out of the periphery - by Ian Bremmer
6) China’s infrastructure-driven alliances - by Parag Khanna
7) The decline in oil prices -  by Michael A. Levi


The final chapter by Mak Leonard concludes with 5 lessons for the world of geo-economics

1) States must develop their rules of the road for economic warfare
2) States must find the right economic role and pursue new forms of engagement.
3) Staying attuned to the “survival of the biggest” and the pooling of the weak.
4) Businesses can keep their eye on the global prize but play by new rules in the interim
5) A focus on key regional players and subglobal politics rather than worldwide institutions is necessary.