Risk appetite & expectations - banking system vs non-bank system - Banks of England's Governor views

 

14min clip - The Five Rules of Risk

11min @kurz_gesagt clip - The Side Effects of #Vaccines - How High is the #Risk ?

Text from youtube "Vaccines are one of our best tools to prevent dangerous diseases, but they come with side effects. So would it be safer not to vaccinate?

This video has been supported by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. "

6min 52sec @TheRSA clip - How to Take a #Risk and Succeed with Jonah Sachs

Text from youtube "Safe thinking is everywhere. It defines our everyday routines, work habits and ideas. There's just one problem with it: in a world of constant change, it ultimately lets us down. Creativity guru and viral video pioneer Jonah Sachs argues that the most remarkable individuals, are those who dramatically reject what they know. Sachs reveals how you too can learn to adopt the boldly innovative mindset that will help you thrive in life and in business. Watch Jonah Sachs, founder of Free Range Studios, "

1min 17sec @wef clip - A daily cup of #tea can reduce the risk of #dementia

1min 15sec #wef clip - Are you at risk of a #burnout ?

3min 52sec UK police clip on how to prepare/plan for #firearms & weapon #attacks

2min 55sec clip - nobody saw it coming - a swimming pool #fart becomes a Massive Gas Bubble that pops & turns earth into an #apocalyptic wasteland

found via laughingsquid|

what is systemic #risk?

found via @econromesh

Global #Risk Report #2015 - overview from #wef & exceprt 1-4

Overview Excerpt 1 Excerpt 2 Excerpt 3 Excerpt 4

global risks report 2013 - overview film

critical thinking no. 5 - the precautionary tale

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

- not acting until you have a good idea about any adverse consequences is called the precautionary principle

- this happens every day - products are tested before they go to market to prove they are safe - because there is a chance they are not

- but its difficult to remove all concerns about the risks associated with every single action - let alone those based on the complex series of tests and observations required by science

- and here we run into some confusion about how science works - for example - some say evolution or global warming are not facts - they are "just" theories - but there is no "just" about it - in science theory doesn't mean "I reckon" 

- it means a well tested rule which is based on logic, which explains repeated observations, and which has been used to make accurate predictions - and this makes these theories very useful - and difficult to ignore

- so newton's theory of gravitational attraction is a theory - it explains how objects with mass move the way they do -and its a theory so useful 300 years after it was 1st published it is used to send objects from earth to the far reaches of the solar system

- observable or proven facts are only part of science

- when faced with risks its understandable to wait until we have 100% certainty about it - unfortunately that is impossible

- the best that can be achieved is that - given all our current theories (see definition above) - and repeated testing, logic, and the facts - that we are reasonably confident something is safe

- and this is where the precautionary principle can be misused - waiting for more information is useful - but waiting for that unattainable 100% certainty prevents anybody from doing anything

- consider mobile phones and fears that their radiation emissions may cause cancer - if we choose to wait until mobile phones were proved to be 100% safe - or not - then we would have no mobile phone technology 

- cancer isn't something to be taken lightly - but waiting for irrefutable data (which is logically impossible) is a bad way to make decisions

- and in doing so we may lose amazing opportunities or encounter new risks

- asking about risks is sensible - but asking for 100% safety stops technology from moving on

3 seconds - a risky dangerous life of faith

via the church sofa

risk

this post on nature.com is by david ropeik and it's about risk 
(found via freakonomics)  


in summary it says "that our perceptions of risk are an inextricable blend of fact and feeling, reason and gut reaction, cognition and intuition"



the post identifies "the perception gap, the gap between our fears and the facts, which is a huge risk in and of itself" and argues that that gap "produces social policies that protect us more from what we're afraid of than from what in fact threatens us the most"


in a review of the literature on risk perception the post draws out how:
a) we initially respond subconsciously/instinctively;
b) to quickly make sense of partial info our brains use shortcuts formed from previous experiences;
c) certain risks feel more frightening notwithstanding the facts;
d) our views on risk are shaped to agree with those we most strongly identify with.