Covid-19 inquiry UK - predictions on the answers it will find to 14 of its likely questions

 

The UK Covid-19 Inquiry started in earnest June 2023, and is due to conclude in 2026 at a possible cost of over £200 million

The inquiry chair, Lady Heather Hallett, has already shown her independence by letting government know she, not they, will be the one deciding whether evidence is relevant to the inquiry.  The overall theme of the inquiry could be described as learning lessons by examining documents and calling witnesses to give evidence under oath.  So we'll all be waiting for the evidence based answer to the question of what lessons can be learnt.  

I couldn't resist coming up with my predictions on the answers to the questions the inquiry is likely to be asking (More info on the inquiry is below that if you're interested).

Q1) Was the pandemic properly planned for? A1) No

Q2) Was the UK adequately ready for that eventuality?  A2) No

Q3) What lessons are there to learn on the whole system of civil emergencies including resourcing, risk management, pandemic readiness and government decision-making?  

A3) a) A decade of NHS under-funding didn't help us be ready for a pandemic, b) mutiple pandemic options should be planned for rather than whatever the last one was, c) the economic and educational and mental health impacts of lock downs should be better quantified, d) decision making didn't join up impacts on the NHS and on social care.

Q4) Was the core political, civil service and central government governance and decision-making in the UK fit for purpose?  A4) No

Q5) How effective where relationships with governments in the devolved administrations and local and voluntary sectors?  .A5) Not much

Q6) How well did government and society respond to Covid-19? 

A6) Initially the reaction was panic and fear

Q7) What impact did the pandemic have on healthcare systems, patients, health care workers? 

A7) Burn out of staff and mounting backlogs of other medical procedures.

Q8) What effect did healthcare governance, primary care, NHS backlogs, vaccination programmes and long covid diagnosis and support have?

A8) a) The success with a vaccine was inspite of, not due to, our healthcare governance.  b) Long covid impacts were unexpected and will continue to demand NHS and social care resources for some time.  c) NHS backlogs were already mounting pre-pandemic, d) the NHS showed great flexibility in re-assigning staff and facilities to focus on hospitalised covid-19 patients, and in quickly sharing medical insights on how to treat covid-19 patient's symptoms.

Q9) What lessons have we learnt from from the development of Covid-19 vaccines, the implementation of the vaccine rollout programme, the treatment of Covid-19 through both existing and new medications?  

A9) See answer 8) above

Q10) How prepared are we for the next pandemic?  A10) We are not well prepared.

Q11) How unequal was vaccine uptake, what caused this, how did Government respond? 

A11) Vaccine uptake was uneven, driven in part by cultural issues and, as always, by those who are poorer, less educated and less priveleged having poorer health.

Q12) What are the facts concerning public concern relating to vaccine safety and the current system for financial redress under the UK Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme?

A12) a) AI and social media will continue to spread dis-information on vaccines, b) as of May 2023, 72 people have received a payment from the government for being severely disabled by a Covid-19 vaccine, or on behalf of someone who died from the vaccine.  In total, 96 people have been told that they are entitled to receive money via the UK’s Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme, run by the NHS authority, which means 24 are still waiting on the cash. Source

Q13) How well was government procurement handled?  

A13) Not at all well, with basic procurement disciplines being ignored and associates of those in power securing contracts that yielded them obscene profits.

Q14) How well did the Care sector respond to Covis-19?

A14) Infected older people were forced onto care homes leading to further unnecessary deaths.  The Care sector was, and still is, underfunded and faces significant resourcing issues.  

MORE INFO ON THE INQUIRY'S MODULES

The various modules are described below using information form the inquiry website.

Active modules

1. Resilience and preparedness   Was the pandemic properly planned for? Was the UK adequately ready for that eventuality?  What lessons are there to learn on the whole system of civil emergencies including resourcing, risk management, pandemic readiness and  government decision-making?  
2. Core UK decision-making and political governance Was the core political, civil service and central government governance and decision-making in the UK fit for purpose?  How effective where relationships with governments in the devolved administrations and local and voluntary sectors?  .
3. Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on healthcare systems in the 4 nations of the UK  How well did government and society respond to Covid-19?  What impact did the pandemic have on healthcare systems, patients, health care workers. What effect did healthcare governance, primary care, NHS backlogs, vaccination programmes and long covid diagnosis and support have?
4. Vaccines and therapeutics  What lessons have we learnt from from the development of Covid-19 vaccines, the implementation of the vaccine rollout programme, the treatment of Covid-19 through both existing and new medications?  How prepared are we for the next pandemic?  How unequal was vaccine uptake, what caused this, how did Government respond?  What are the facts concerning public concern relating to vaccine safety and the current system for financial redress under the UK Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme?
5. 
   

Future modules

5. Government procurement  Module 5 will examine Government Procurement across the UK. 
6. Care sector  Module 6, examining the care sector across the UK, will open in December.

Further modules will be announced in the coming months (says the Inquiry website as at 6/7/23) covering both ‘system’ and ‘impact’ issues across the UK including:

• Testing and tracing
• The Government’s business and financial responses
• Health inequalities and the impact of Covid-19
• Education, children and young persons
• Other public services, including frontline delivery by key workers