critical thinking no.5: the gambler's fallacy

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

- if you watch a coin flip 9 times - it comes up heads 2 times and tails 7 times

- what is going to come up next?

- as tails has been having a good run maybe that will continue - or because of that maybe it is time for heads?

- our brains are very good at recognising patterns - sometime when they are not there

- in fact there is a 50% chance of heads or tails every time the coin is flipped - it doesn't matter what came before and luck doesn't come into it at all

- but it is hard to shake the idea that there is a pattern in there somewhere - maybe we just need to look hard enough - this is known as the gambler's fallacy (our assumption that probability changes as a result of past events)

- we are wired to see things as if they are related 

- so for example - people take pills and feel better - but a lot of logic and probability is needed to determine whether the pills were truly responsible

- just because one thing follows another it does not mean they are linked - there could be other factors or it could just be coincidence

- to know for sure you have to test the circumstances again and again  - to look for those other factors that could disprove the link-  this reinforces confidence that your pattern is true

- our brains may see patterns - and this is often useful - but it takes science to prove that those patterns are real