critical thinking no. 5 - the precautionary tale

script by mike mcrae and james hutson, recording and music by audrey studios, animated and directed by James Hutson, produced by Bridge 8, found via brainpickings 

in summary

- not acting until you have a good idea about any adverse consequences is called the precautionary principle

- this happens every day - products are tested before they go to market to prove they are safe - because there is a chance they are not

- but its difficult to remove all concerns about the risks associated with every single action - let alone those based on the complex series of tests and observations required by science

- and here we run into some confusion about how science works - for example - some say evolution or global warming are not facts - they are "just" theories - but there is no "just" about it - in science theory doesn't mean "I reckon" 

- it means a well tested rule which is based on logic, which explains repeated observations, and which has been used to make accurate predictions - and this makes these theories very useful - and difficult to ignore

- so newton's theory of gravitational attraction is a theory - it explains how objects with mass move the way they do -and its a theory so useful 300 years after it was 1st published it is used to send objects from earth to the far reaches of the solar system

- observable or proven facts are only part of science

- when faced with risks its understandable to wait until we have 100% certainty about it - unfortunately that is impossible

- the best that can be achieved is that - given all our current theories (see definition above) - and repeated testing, logic, and the facts - that we are reasonably confident something is safe

- and this is where the precautionary principle can be misused - waiting for more information is useful - but waiting for that unattainable 100% certainty prevents anybody from doing anything

- consider mobile phones and fears that their radiation emissions may cause cancer - if we choose to wait until mobile phones were proved to be 100% safe - or not - then we would have no mobile phone technology 

- cancer isn't something to be taken lightly - but waiting for irrefutable data (which is logically impossible) is a bad way to make decisions

- and in doing so we may lose amazing opportunities or encounter new risks

- asking about risks is sensible - but asking for 100% safety stops technology from moving on